Good Thursday morning all. Excellent day in the Dow Jones yesterday (+210…we love both the Dow and R2K charts here) but slow summer-like day elsewhere. ATH’s once again in S&P 500 and we’ve now had back-to-back-to-back days with ATH’s in the semis as SMH put up a bit of a furious rally into the final 15 minutes to close just slightly green (we own SOXL, the 3 x Semi ETF), as semis and tech have continued to lead the way higher. Little is more bullish….semis lead nasdaq/tech, nasdaq leads everything else.

Dow futures +50, nasdaq -10 this AM.

Reminder that…


Good Thursday morning all. Yesterday may have been a quiet day on the surface, but like ducks on the water it was a much different story below the water line. We’ve just had back to back days with fresh ATH’s in Nasdaq and Q’s (Nasdaq 100), the semis led the way higher (they’ll hit ATH’s soon), and we just had our best readings of VRA Investing System internals in 7 trading days. And this morning, S&P 500 futures have joined the party, hitting ATH’s in premarket trading.

Can you hear that sound in the near distance? It’s the drumbeat of…


Good Thursday morning all. As we have covered in previous updates, as bad as J Powells track record is (once his pressers begin the markets immediately start to tank), JP actually scored a win yesterday. When he began speaking the Dow was -309 and Nasdaq -104, but by the close the Dow was -265 and Nasdaq down just -33. Not much of a W, granted, but a W nonetheless.

Markets are mixed this AM but off the lows. Gold got smoked below $1800/oz (last $1780), now trading below its 200 dma of $1843/oz.
GDX (miner ETF) just broke its 200…


Good Friday morning all.

Yesterday's trading brought fresh ATH in the S&P 500 with the Dow and Russell 2000 less than 1% from ATH and Nasdaq starting this AM at 1.3% from ATH. And while yesterday's internals were nothing to write home about (meme wars), we continue to like what we see as the semis and Nasdaq/tech/growth/momentum stocks are leading the way higher. SMH (Semi ETF) +1.31%, Nasdaq +.78%. Textbook, really.

As Tyler’s been known to say on our podcasts, “new ATH’s beget new ATH’s”…and he’s exactly right, as analytics prove that there is rarely a better time to invest…


Good Thursday morning all. Breaking news from the ADP jobs report this AM which came in at 978,000 jobs created vs estimate of 650,000. I can tell you that there’s some nervousness around the May jobs report that’ll be out tomorrow morning (8:30 AM EST), especially following last month’s huge miss. Estimates are for May are 670,000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 5.9%.

I have no clue about these month to month economic reports but I can tell you that the bond market is not signalling this as a “hot” economic report. The 10 year yield is back…


Good Thursday morning all. This feels as much like a goldilocks market as I can remember. You know the reasons we’re bullish…the reasons we’ve been aggressively bullish for the last 14 months…but its primarily about two issues. These are the most important two issues of any bull or bear market; liquidity and corporate earnings. And we’ve never had this much global liquidity. …


Good Thursday morning all. China’s warnings about “unreasonable commodity price rises” and their latest verbal attacks against crypto’s/Bitcoin resulted in an “everything must go” sell-off yesterday morning. From stocks, bonds, commodities to cryptos, everything “was” lower. But then, just as we bulls wanted to see, yesterdays smart money hour was excellent resulting in positive closes in the semis, QQQ (nasdaq 100) and just a 3 point loss in Nasdaq. Liquidity events like this tend to mark either capitulation or the start of something bigger. Our view is unchanged; capitulation in tech/growth looks to have taken place last week. …


Good Thursday morning all. Another “must watch” monthly economic report was out yesterday as the April CPI came in hot at 0.8% vs consensus estimate of 0.2%. But let’s be real…like the April jobs report, none of these monthly reports are actually “must watch”. They are heavily manipulated and rarely reliable (as we regularly discover when adjusted data is released). But yes, no surprises here, inflation is running hot. That’s the effect that >$22 trillion in fresh global stimulus/QE and unprecedented currency inflation (aka fiat money printing) has on an economy.

This is one of the times that we agree…


Good Thursday morning and welcome to the first trading week of May. As we have covered in these pages each year, from 2003 on, May to October are the markets worst 6 months of the year with >90% of all stock market gains occurring from November to April. Typically this is when we would either be setting stops, or at minimum, become more cautious in our trading.

But our “sell in May and go away” analytics don’t look to apply this year. Here’s why:

- We know that May, in post election years, has historically been one of the best…


Good Friday morning all. Following a solid intraday reversal higher into the close that sent multiple indexes and sectors to ATH (including SPX, Nasdaq, Housing and Transports) the Dow Jones is giving back 2/3’s of yesterday's gains this AM. Earnings continue to destroy their comps of Q1 2020. As Tyler covered in his podcast yesterday, Wall Street analysts were expecting Q1 ’21 to beat Q1 ’20 with 12.2% EPS, but with 40% of the S&P 500 reporting EPS growth is putting up a remarkable 29.3% EPS growth (over Q1 ’20).

Yes, we’re getting a bit of buy the rumor sell…

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